There are eight full months between now and the November, 2012 elections. A lot can happen between now and then, some good, some bad, when considered from the prospective of the President's reelection. The crazy thing is that these events take on a life of their own. The consequences could be devastating one way or the other. In many respects, it doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate. This is why I find it difficult to take politics too seriously at the moment.
EVENTS THAT COULD ASSURE OBAMA OF A SECOND TERM
1. A Well-Timed QE3 Nothing is more important in a Presidential election year than the state of the economy. And nothing has more influence on the economy than the actions of the Federal Reserve. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke released a trial balloon this weak hinting that the FED may have to engage in another round of pump priming. A well-timed, massive injection of new money into the financial system could give the economy a boost that would resemble a substantial and permanent recovery. Stocks would take off significantly. Employers would be quoted as thinking about hiring again, or delaying layoffs, especially in the financial industry and among government contractors.
The intervention would have to be massive. A corresponding jump in price inflation would be the natural consequence. However, if the Fed intervened in June, the consumer wouldn't feel the pinch in prices until after the election. It wouldn't be the first time a well-timed Fed intervention affected the outcome of a Presidential election. Whether there is collusion between the Fed and the White House is another question altogether.
2. A Well-Timed National Emergency What kind of emergency? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe a war with Iran that is precipitated by Israel. The President could say he did all he could to prevent such a war, but Israel's action left the US no choice but to become involved.
Another possibility is a terrorist attack on the US, or Chinese adventurism in the Far East. Who knows. The possibilities are endless. Fear and patriotism have swayed elections in the past.
Summary Both of these events carry with them an "I got Bin Laden!" opportunity for the President. Mr. Obama is not shy about claiming credit where credit is not due. A faux-economic recovery or a swift and decisive intervention by the American military or first responders would be easy pickings for the President and the mainstream media who are essentially shills for the incumbent.
EVENTS THAT COULD SWING THE TIDE AGAINST OBAMA
1. New Taxes Sink The Economy To A New Low In 30 days the US will Have The World's Highest Corporate Tax Rate. Moreover, at the end of December, 2012 the Bush Tax Cuts are set to expire. Too late to affect the economy before the election? Hardly. Ending or extending the Bush Tax Cuts are likely to be a huge election issue. The Democrats will demagog while the market places its bets. The end result will be an anchor on the economy. In the meantime, key new Obamacare taxes are set to kick in at about the same time. Business owners will continue to sit on their hands and the medical industry will anticipate them. This all adds up to another economic anchor weighing down Mr. Obama.
2. The Birth Certificate Controversy May Explode This week Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona’s Maricopa County released a report that "concluded there is probable cause that the document released by the White House last year as President Obama’s birth certificate is a computer-generated forgery." Arpaio's efforts will continue. Moreover, there are a handful of "birthers" around the country who won't let this issue go unchallenged in the courts. Who knows? Arpaio or an obscure federal judge somewhere might just spell Obama's Waterloo. Stranger things have happened.
3. Obama's Elusive Paper Trail May Catch Up With Him Reportedly, the late Andrew Breitbart "was set to release damning video footage that could have sunk Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign." Breitbart's compatriots have promised the videos will be released shortly. If the videos show conclusively that Mr. Obama was well-acquainted with terrorist radicals William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn and not merely "neighbors" who barely knew each other (as the President has said), the President and his cronies will have to do some fast talking. The damage is sure to be palpable.
Moreover, these things have a tendency to snowball. Perhaps someone somewhere has access to the President's college writings or knowledge of some damning associations or activities in Obama's hidden past. Who knows what information may come back to bite the President.
4. The Truth About Bin Laden's Death May Surface Unlike the issues above, about which I continue to remain skeptical, I'm convinced there is something very fishy about Bin Laden's assassination and burial at sea. So far the media has bought the official administration story hook, line and sinker. However, the facts suggest questions that have never been asked, much less answered. No administration in history would have been given such a huge benefit of the doubt.
Think about it. The purported mastermind of the most deadly terrorist attack on US soil, the alleged head man of Al Qaeda, America's enemy number one in the ten year old "War on Terror," one of the reasons used to justify the invasion of Iraq, the sole reason Americans have been dying in Afghanistan for ten years -- this diabolical enemy is killed by an elite Navy Seal team, his body is hurriedly evacuated, and is immediately buried at sea in order to comply with the rites of Islam.
No pictures. No autopsy. No nothing. Some on the left believe the Bush administration masterminded the attack on the World Trade Center and then covered it up. If it is possible for a Presidential administration to do that, it is possible for a Presidential administration to fake Bin Laden's demise for political benefit.
Andrew Breitbart won't break this story. There is no "Woodward and Bernstein" in today's media. But somewhere someone just might come clean and sink Mr. Obama's bid for a second term.
5. "Fast and Furious" and Solyndra: Obama's Watergate? Time is getting short, but these are two more events that may blow up in the President's face. They fail the smell test. All that is required is someone somewhere to turn over the right rock and expose the roaches. Unlikely, but still possible. And potentially fatal.
Summary Are all of the above mere pie-in-the-sky conspiracy theories? Do any of these events have a snowball's chance in hell of ever materializing in the real world?
Mr. Obama has the media in his pocket. He gets away with blatant hypocrisy and absurdity. He blamed Bush for rising gas prices but denies blame for skyrocketing gas prices during his watch. With a straight face, he proposed "algae" has his solution to the nation's energy problems. His Press Secretary, Jay Carney, lies with impunity. Joe Biden, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, numerous Democrats in the Senate and the House, not to mention leftist talk radio hosts, make absolutely partisan, absurd and foolish pronouncements with nary a peep reported in the mainstream media. Joe Biden said the Taliban is not our enemy, for god sakes! Carney defended him. And still nothing in the press.
All this doesn't bode well for the game-changing events happening as I've speculated. Still, I wouldn't bet against them. Not in this day and age.
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