Grab some popcorn.
Nobody knows how this Trump tariff play will shake out on the ground in the real world. Anyone who says he knows is fooling himself.
Economically, tariffs run against my grain. They are interventionist, plain and simple. They represent pure governmental coercion of the marketplace. They interfere with the division of labor and, as such, make production less efficient and products more expensive by restricting supply. They create uncertainty and cronyism in the marketplace.
But Trump isn't swinging his tariff cudgel as an economic tool. The Trump tariffs are first and foremost a political weapon. Tariffs enhance the power of those imposing them. Tariffs benefit some and oppress others. Those who benefit become economic parasites and sycophants of the state. Those oppressed become enemies of the state. Trade wars have kindled more real wars than virtually any other political machination. The American Civil War was engendered by the trade war between the North and the South.
The Trump tariffs are a political weapon wielded by a man who thinks he knows the outcome of his actions and thinks he can control that outcome. I'm not sure he's even in control of his own political party.
There are too many wild cards in the mix for making accurate predictions about the effect of these tariffs on the world political situation or even on the world economy.
The Democrats are not going to sit on their hands. Look what happened just a couple days ago in Wisconsin. Trump endorsed a flawed candidate for the Supreme Court and Elon Musk doubled down by coming to the state openly buying votes for that candidate. I can't think of a better way to enrage the average Wisconsinite and motivate your average TDS-infected Democrat. Trump played right into the Dem's hand. The Dems poured millions into the state under the radar. The voter backlash created a liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and will probably result in a two-seat swing in the US House of Representatives. There goes the Republican majority. Can you say Trump impeachment II?
The Dem political reaction to Trump's tariffs is yet to come but we can safely assume the Dems will play the resulting supply and demand chaos for everything it's worth.
Then, there is the federal judiciary. It could be argued that Trump's tariff order will cause short-term economic chaos that will soon resolve itself. However, how long will it take before a federal judge decides Trump's tariffs are unconstitutional and issues a restraining order stopping them? Will Trump's tariffs motivate American manufacturers to build and expand in the face of this coming legal circus, not to mention the coming Dem majority in the House?
Instead of more government meddling by imposing tariffs, Trump could have focused on making US producers stronger by eliminating stupid and misguided workplace and environmental restrictions and regulations on US industry, eliminating crony subsidies, significantly reducing federal spending and tackling the Medicare and Medicaid fiascos.
Of course, those efforts would have been resisted by the federal judiciary and the Democrat socialist machine as well. So who knows?
We'll see.
Like I said, grab some popcorn.
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